eKYC vs Covid-19, time to relax ?

Danger over ?

Introduction

This is a precursor series of articles from the work performed in the EU expert group where the reports can be found here and here.

In previous articles I have written on the urgency on fixing the KYC processes both generally in terms of quick wins for trust services and especially in the time of covid-19.

The latter aspect is a game changer as it no longer becomes an issue of fixing time consuming and broken processes but a much needed tool to combat the disease.

These days we are seeing green spouts on return to normal and a natural question would be if this changes the overall picture. This would imply going back to the normal snails pace of getting things in place which are highly relevant to covid-19 situation.

I think this is not the case and will try to explain why hopefully without being a scaremonger.

Over or just a pause for the grand return ?

Lessons learned from the 1918 Pandemic

One observation from this last full-scale pandemic are:

• It came in 3 waves over the duration of a year.
• The first wave was the mildest and the second and third wave was much worse.

1918 in a neutral country

There are countless metrics from different countries showing exactly the same thing. This if often explained by impact of the great war causing collateral damage on health care.

What makes this metrics interesting is the fact that it is from Denmark which was neutral and there is no rationale to explain this that way. Rather it seems to confirm that it is a generic property of the pandemic and not explainable by external causes however catalytic they may be.

Human nature

Human have an amazing tendency to fall back to old behavior quickly. Probably this is one of the major contributing factors to a wave of infections.

• People change behavior when afraid.
• This only last so long and quickly after the perception of immediate danger has passed they will revert to the old ways.
• This will inadvertently cause infections to grow again.
• At each cycle the resources available of any kind (financial, personal etc) will decrease and lead to a worsening impact.

As an personal observation I can add after the first mild relaxation of restrictions .

• The world exploded. It was like shopping before Christmas people everywhere of all ages.
• An observable relaxation of adherence to hygiene measures (many no longer used the dispensers for sanitation before entering).
• An observable relaxation in distancing adherence.
• An observable relaxation in other adherence, like avoid touching goods you are not buying.

Current predictions

This article provides a reasonable insight into where we are at the moment some important quotes would be.

That means that, as countries start to creep out of their paralyses, experts would push governments to implement an awkward new way of living and interacting to buy the world time in the months, years or decades until Covid-19 can be eliminated by a vaccine.

“It is absolutely essential to work on being Covid-ready,” Nabarro says. He calls for a new “social contract” in which citizens in every country, while starting to go about their normal lives, take personal responsibility to self-isolate if they show symptoms or come into contact with a potential Covid-19 case.

But if previous outbreaks have proven anything, it’s that hunts for vaccines are unpredictable. “I don’t think any vaccine has been developed quickly,” Offit cautions. “I’d be really amazed if we had something in 18 months.”

Restrictions are most likely to come back over the winter, with Hotez suggesting that Covid-19 peaks could occur every winter until a vaccine is introduced.

These predictions points to a very similar scenario as the 1918 scenario.

This recent study has a very similar conclusion.

An their recommendation is very clear.

Recommendations

1. States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (Scenario 2), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
2. Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
3. Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
4. Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years

In my honest opinion the social contracts works both ways, there is a strict moral responsibility for governments and politicians to accelerate and implement any and all steps to avoid personal appreance to fit into this potential new social order.

Vulnerable groups

Even now with the infamous R below 1 we have people in vulnerable groups which basically are more or less sure to succumb should the be infected. For the majority the real danger has always been associated with lack of treatment in a system overwhelmed by patients.

As a social responsibility we should make what ever effort we can to help these groups being able to maintain social distancing of which the best is doing things remotely. For governments and politicians this should still be of the highest priority and fixing stop gaps which brings permanent value as well as helping these groups now should be a obvious to execute on.

Of cause we all have a responsibility but unfortunately human nature is human nature.

Defining urgency

The best way of doing this is to tell two stories of what is possible.

Compensation of lost revenue due to Covid-19

On the 24 March the prime minister of Norway reached out for assistance. A completely new solution was needed for compensation of lost revenue for businesses.

1. This solution needed to be self served web based where the manager of the businesses could apply for compensation
2. The system needed automatically to retrieve the historic turn around for the company and approve, disapprove or refer to a case worker.
3. The case worker should have a suitable interface to finally reject or accept the application.
4. If approved money should be transferred and be available the next business day at latest.

On the 17 of April this was operational and public available.

Establishing secure remote on-boarding for EU subjects.

A bit later a need was discovered for non Norwegian citizens who are entitled to benefits but unable to apply. They would not have a suitable electronic id and in person applications was out of the question as well as impossible as they where and are stranded in their home country.

This system is undergoing final testing and is expected to become public available next week.

So non of these happens in a vacuum, Norway has a fully deployed electronic ID system and there have been a huge effort on remote on boarding with specifications earlier.

But as stated by the stakeholders, this would normally have taken 3 years not 3 weeks. The efforts includes amending/changing regulations and laws.

So this is urgency and this is what is possible if you really think something is urgent.

What should be done ?

Well it is really very simple: Remove all requirements on being physical present where this really serves no purpose with our current technology and especially as most of those are counterproductive anyway. This applies to a wide field but I can only cover what I know.

• Digital identities should be implemented at scale. Now these are fine if you can get them but are hard to put in place and only shifts the problem if you need to go to an office somewhere obscure and line up to qualify. Thus a precursor is the next item.
• Remote on-boarding must be implemented proper. This is really a low hanging fruit as my previous articles have shown. Most of the components are in place it is just a wild west since no proper authority has seen fit to define the requirements and usage.
• Electronic KYC prosesses must be established cross border in the EU. Now many may do not know how many touch points this has. Under current AML directives not only banks but a myriad of other entities are required to do this. This is really a no brainier as it will strengthen the purpose of AML, reduce costs significantly in addition to greatly enhancing the remote aspect.

Summary

I hope there will be no second and third wave and if there is I hope they will be far less potent than the first. However I do not think this will happen, they will be back and will have significant magnitude. Thus it would be only fit for a fool to do nothing and believe the danger is past.

We do have a breathing space and we should use it to do things that will improve the situation if it happens and where this are items we need to do anyway for structural and economic reasons. So doing the right thing at speed is the moniker.

There are a lot of things that are better than in 1918 pointing to a milder development but believe me we have also made a lot of changes that points in the direction of this being worse not better.

In the final end picking up on this and not playing a fools game is a political responsibility. It should not be a hard thing to do as stated this is a question of accelerating efforts that will need to done for the benefit of society. At the same thing this does not belong in the prioritization queue as there really practically no finical costs.

For this to happen the rest of us can only drum on our drums, drum together with our utensils an in a true activists manner try to get attention. If for nothing else we tried wherever the chips may fall.

About the author

Ronny Khan is an IT and Business development specialist within the Norwegian financial sector, who was involved in standardization effort on remote natural person identification targeting trust level high as part of a shared effort by the Banking association with public sector stakeholders. He is currently participating in ISO standardization and a keen follower of the are of identity, identity proofing , KYC and always looking for new interesting domains.